Nothing in horse racing is as mysterious as the long shot. It is the horse that does not seem to have a chance to win, but wins with high odds. The long shot is often suspected of foul play and race fixing, but in reality, it’s usually just a horse who had something going for him that the crowd didn’t notice.
It can be as simple as a jockey change or team change or as drastic as a gelding. Sometimes the answer to why a long shot suddenly woke up and ran the race of his life is right in front of you. Other times, it may never be apparent.
There are horses that are held back and then allowed to win so the odds are high for them, but in my opinion they are the exception to the rule. I think it’s more likely that horses are like people and any other animal, they’re not machines, so they’re not always predictable or reliable.
When Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby it was quite a shock, but a look at the horse’s breeding and connections reveal a horse that was truly a fit for the race. While the dose index indicated a horse that couldn’t win, or at least one that was unlikely to win, one look at the father was enough to tell us that if his dad could win the Belmont, a longer race, then he probably could. gain. drive the mile and a quarter of the Derby.
Mine That Bird had to earn its place in the Derby, so it wasn’t a giveaway. The horse was talented and the jockey, a talented rider, took the ride of his life to get to the winner’s circle. Could we have predicted that Calvin Borel would ride so well? Why not, he rode like that when he won the 2007 Derby aboard Street Sense.
There were clues, but the crowd either missed them or found stronger indications elsewhere. However, as long as there are big rewards and surprises like that, horse racing will be one of the most exciting sports in the world. The point is that the reasons why many horses win are not a secret at all, they are simply underestimated by the handicappers. The switch to Calvin Borel, the cross that indicated a horse that would run well off the track, and a bull that had won a triple crown stage all indicated a horse with a chance to win. After all, it was no secret.
