With the NBA Summer League restarting, teams have the opportunity to show off rookies, teach them the system, and allow them to integrate with the team. Using a bit of data analysis, I was able to crunch some numbers and make some predictions about rookie success and lack thereof. To measure the impact of each rookie, I used their college stats for points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, blocks, and steals (all per game). Then I subtracted last year’s starter for the team they’re with to measure the immediate impact. The financial value was a difficult thing to do since some players haven’t signed contracts, so I multiplied the impact by the square root of their total pick number because the NBA uses tiered pick salaries. Here are some highlights:
Highest Impacting Rookies (Not Value Weighted)
DeAndre Ayton – Suns
Chandler Hutchison – Bulls
Marvin Bagley III – Kings
These three players were the only rookies with worthless weighted potential hits greater than 10. I predict the Suns made the right decision in taking DeAndre Ayton with the first overall pick. The Suns were in desperate need of a center, and Ayton’s college stats far exceed Tyson Chandler’s stats from last year. Watch out for Chandler Hutchison too because I predict he’s going to surprise a lot of people. I compared Denzel Valentine’s stats to yours and they weren’t even close. Look for Hutchison’s name further down the list. Finally, Marvin Bagley III seems poised for success in the NBA. A solid second overall pick for the Kings fills a serious need for the team, and I predict he will have an immediate positive impact.
Highest impacting rookies (weighted value)
Chandler Hutchison – Bulls
Kevin Hervey – Thunder
Alize Johnson – Pacers
All three of these rookies had value-weighted hits greater than 50, and no other rookies reached that number. Hutchison had the highest, and as I said earlier, it will surely surprise a lot of people. Look for great things this coming year. Hervey and Johnson were helped by low draft positions, with Hervery at 57 and Johnson at 50. I predict they’ll both get some decent minutes off the bench and have more of an impact than their draft position can warrant.
Rookies with worst impact (weighted value)
Kostas Antetokounmpo – Mavericks
De’Anthony Melton – Rockets
Thomas Welsh – Nuggets
Gary Trent Jr. – Trail Blazers
These four rookies are likely to have almost no impact on the team that drafted them. These four were the highest regardless of whether the value was taken into consideration or not. Antetokounmpo was the last overall pick, and frankly, I’m surprised he was drafted. However, it has a very high lead, but it will take a while to develop. The other three will most likely end up in the development league, as they all have major flaws in some area. Some bigger names to look out for as busts are the Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson, the Magic’s Mo Bamba and the Nuggets’ Michael Porter Jr..
Teams with the highest impact rookies (weighted value)
Thunder
pacemaker
Bulls
I chose to only show the value-weighted impact for the teams because it really shows how well the team wrote as needed. The Thunder had three short picks, all with positive impact values, giving them a chance for all three to make a difference. However, one problem that is difficult to explain mathematically is that two teams, Hamidou Diallo and Devon Hall, play the same position, meaning some impact will be cancelled. The Pacers had two picks, Aaron Holiday (23rd) and Alize Johnson (50th) with solid positive hits. Each seems to have the ability to play beyond their draft value. Lastly, the Bulls had Wendell Carter, Jr. (7th) and the aforementioned Chandler Hutchison (22nd). My bold prediction for this post is that one of these two will win Rookie of the Year. The Bulls had a good draft and appear poised for a trade with a core group of young players.
Teams with Lowest Impact Rookies (weighted value)
pips
Mavericks
rockets
The Nuggets drafted three rookies, all with negative impacts. This shows that the team didn’t draft out of necessity, and at least for their highest pick, Michael Porter, Jr., they caught up. Personally, I was never a big fan of drafting him because of his injury issues. Furthermore, they hampered his performance to a great extent. The big reason the Mavericks are here is because of Kostas Antetokounmpo. His other two rookies had a small positive impact, but he made up for them. It will simply be a project that becomes a superstar or is quickly forgotten. Lastly, the Rockets had two short picks in the draft, which makes it simple that they most likely won’t contribute. Give him a few years and things might be different, but for now, the Rockets’ rookies probably won’t see much time.
